Text of Research Paper on Automobile and Automotive Parts Industry
New energy vehicles will continue to rush to buy in the short term. The passenger car sales data in March 2019 will be released by the Riding Federation. In March, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense dropped by 9.7% compared with the same period last year; the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense dropped by 12.1% compared with the same period last year; and the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars increased by 100.9% compared with the same period last year.
From January to March, the cumulative wholesale sales of narrow-sense passenger cars were 5.15 million, down 14.2% year-on-year; the cumulative retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars were 5.08 million, down 10.5% year-on-year; and the cumulative wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars were 254,000, up 117.8% year-on-year.
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Spring Festival disturbance factors dissipated, year-on-year decline gradually narrowed, car system differentiation was obvious, VAT reduced favorable business and terminal consumption:
Sales in March increased by 48% year on year, highlighting the disturbing factors of the Spring Festival in early February. Retail sales fell 12% year on year and 10.5% year on year in the first quarter. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2018, the decline in recent months has been significantly narrowed. The differentiation of car system is obvious, luxury car still keeps increasing by 7.5%, joint venture brand drops by 12.3%, and independent brand drops by 15.7%. Among them, Japanese and German have strong performances and the pressure of independent brand is greater. The value-added tax rate of manufacturing industry was reduced by three points, which directly benefited manufacturing enterprises. Imported automobile companies took the lead in lowering prices and supported the growth of luxury cars. Subsequently, major automobile companies announced that they would adjust their official prices. On the one hand, it would help to improve the mood of buying cars in the market, and on the other hand, it would adjust the pressure of automobile companies to dealers.
Manufacturers'production and marketing activities are active. The decline of monthly output is significantly narrower than that of the previous year. The inventory of sales channels increases in the off-season.
Holiday factors disappeared, and manufacturers'production and wholesale sales activities improved significantly this month. In March, passenger car production increased by 81% annually and decreased by only 7.4% year-on-year, while wholesale sales decreased by only 10% year-on-year, showing a significant rebound compared with the previous months, indicating that manufacturers'enthusiasm for production and marketing has improved to a certain extent. The completion of the launch of the six major state-owned vehicle models in the market will prepare for the implementation of new standards in many parts of the country in advance. But because the terminal demand is still relatively low, March is also the traditional off-season of automobile sales, manufacturers, channels increased inventory of 86,000 vehicles and 177,000 vehicles, respectively.
Subsidy policy officially landed in 2019. During the transitional period, automobile enterprises will continue to rush to install. Sales of new energy passenger vehicles doubled in March compared with the same period last year. After the transitional period, with the new models being put in succession or will become stable:
Due to the anticipated sharp decline in subsidies, new energy passenger vehicles continued to rush to install momentum. Sales in March increased 101% year-on-year, of which pure electric A-class vehicles accounted for 55% of the pure electricity market. Compared with the previous month, the proportion continued to rise, and the overall trend of high-quality market remained unchanged. Sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 254,000 in the first quarter, an increase of 118% year-on-year. The implementation of the new policy is more significant than that of the transition period. Therefore, during the three-month transition period, automobile enterprises will have a stronger willingness to rush to install, accelerate production and sales, speed up the introduction of new models to seize the market, and anticipate that the prosperity of the industry chain will increase in the short term. However, after the transition period, there may be a short adaptation period, digest the production of rush to install, and the market will gradually stabilize.
Investment suggestion
Vehicle companies adjust their own production capacity, terminal sales to inventory, the decline narrowed; under the support of a number of favorable policies, plate valuation has been repaired. New energy automobile subsidy policy falls to the ground, and will usher in a rush to install in the short term. Suggestions are made for joint venture companies with top sales and rapid growth of independent new energy sources: SAIC Group; Guangzhou Automobile Group, whose sales in Japan exceed expectations and independent new energy sources take a new step again; Geely Automobile, the independent leader in the new year of product and globalization strategy; Geely Automobile, the self-owned automobile company whose product structure adjustment has achieved initial results and new energy is gradually developing: Great Wall Automobile; New Energy Automobile tap: BYD.
Risk warning
The decline in macroeconomic growth is not conducive to automobile consumption; the sharp decline in subsidies is not conducive to the new energy automobile market; new products are not recognized risk.
